# 50% poss het snow ball pythons



## lilcindi (Nov 21, 2008)

Hello, i was just wondering if i bought a pair of 50% poss het snow ball pythons what would be the odds of them producing a snow? I know its only 'poss het' so just the odds please. Thanks


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## cornmorphs (Jan 28, 2005)

You cant really give odds on poss hets producing.> I take it that the snakes are both poss het albino and axanthic?, so in that case if poss snakes are 50% poss het each, on each morph then you really are looking at massive long odds there.
if you had 100% hets on both sides you're still more likely to get no snows than you are to get one..


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## paulh (Sep 19, 2007)

Here are your odds:

9/16 (56.25%) that no babies will be albinos, axanthics or snows. In other words, at least one parent is not het albino, and at least one parent is not het axanthic.

3/16 (18.75%) that 1/4 of the babies will be albino and the rest normal. There will be no axanthics or snows. In other words, both parents are het albino and at least one parent is not het axanthic.

3/16 (18.75%) that 1/4 of the babies will be axanthic and the rest normal. There will be no albinos or snows. In other words, both parents are het axanthic and at least one parent is not het albino.

1/16 (6.25%) that both snakes are het albino and het axanthic. This would produce 1/16 snows, 3/16 albinos, 3/16 axanthics, and 9/16 normals

If you want to produce snows, this is the least likely way to do it.


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## paulh (Sep 19, 2007)

By the way, if the two snakes have 17 babies and none is albino, then there is a 99% probability that at least one of the parents is not het albino.

If none of those 17 babies is axanthic, then there is a 99% probability that at least one of the parents is not het axanthic.

If at least one of those 17 babies is albino and at least one other is axanthic, then both parents are het albino and het axanthic. A snow baby would also prove that both parents are het albino and het axanthic.


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## karlh (Jul 5, 2009)

paulh said:


> Here are your odds:
> 
> 9/16 (56.25%) that no babies will be albinos, axanthics or snows. In other words, at least one parent is not het albino, and at least one parent is not het axanthic.
> 
> ...


That's a lot to take in :lol2:


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## mattsdragons (Jul 6, 2009)

if you want to produce snows, go the way of...

1) buy a male albino and female axanthics

2) when old enough breed them to get all 100% het snow (albino and axanthics)

3) when the offspring of the albino and axanthics are old enough, breed 2 of them togeather and you have..

1:4 chance of snows
1:4 chance of albino 66% poss het axanthics
1:4 chance of axanthics 66% poss het albino
1:4 chance of normals 66% poss het snow

if i was you, this is the best way to go.


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## paulh (Sep 19, 2007)

mattsdragons said:


> if you want to produce snows, go the way of...
> 
> 1) buy a male albino and female axanthics
> 
> ...


Those 1:4 chances are wrong because this is a het snow (= het albino, het axanthic) X het snow mating. The 1:4 chances would be right if it was an albino het axanthic X axanthic het albino mating.

The right probabilities for part 3 in the quote are 
1/16 snow
3/16 albino, 66% probability het axanthic
3/16 axanthic, 66% probability het albino
9/16 normal, 66% probability het albino and 66% probability het axanthic

(Disclaimer: These are expectations. Actual results may differ.)

If money was no object, the best way to produce snows would be to mate snow to snow. Het snow X het snow is the poorest way to get snows.

List
-----
snow (= albino, axanthic)
albino het snow (= albino, het axanthic)
axanthic het snow (= axanthic, het albino)
het snow (= het albino, het axanthic)

To produce snows, select a male from the list and a female from the list. There are 16 possible matings. The higher you can get on the list, the more snows to expect the mating to produce.


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## mattsdragons (Jul 6, 2009)

paulh said:


> Those 1:4 chances are wrong because this is a het snow (= het albino, het axanthic) X het snow mating. The 1:4 chances would be right if it was an albino het axanthic X axanthic het albino mating.
> 
> The right probabilities for part 3 in the quote are
> 1/16 snow
> ...


i knew i had gone wrong somewhere.


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## lilcindi (Nov 21, 2008)

yeh its just i was look on CPR and they have a pair of 50% poss het snows for £295 i think, just wondered if it was a good way to go, obviously not lol


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## alan1 (Nov 11, 2008)

mattsdragons said:


> 1:4 chance of snows
> 1:4 chance of albino 66% poss het axanthics
> 1:4 chance of axanthics 66% poss het albino
> 1:4 chance of normals 66% poss het snow





paulh said:


> The 1:4 chances would be right if it was an albino het axanthic X axanthic het albino mating.


 nope, that would give...

1:4 chance of snow
1:4 chance of albino 100% het axanthic
1:4 chance of axanthics 100% het albino
1:4 chance of normals dh het snow


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## ezekiel21 (Sep 4, 2011)

i just purchased 3 females and one male 50% poss het snows for £100..... £295 is too much of a risk in my opinion, but im not much of a risk taker.


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## Ste123 (Apr 30, 2011)

Remember that the odds are for each egg produced an not the clutch.

For example if you have 4 eggs then each egg would have a 1:4 chance of being what you want and not 1:4 eggs will be what you want (I use 1:4 as easy explanation and not the actual probability in this case)


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## ezekiel21 (Sep 4, 2011)

i am well aware of the odds, but thank you. i couldnt pass up 36 bucks per snake when i could get a snow out of it.... highly unlikely but possible :smile:


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## Nix (Jan 23, 2008)

ezekiel21 said:


> i am well aware of the odds, but thank you. i couldnt pass up 36 bucks per snake when i could get a snow out of it.... highly unlikely but possible :smile:


£36 quid each for normals is a good price even


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## yardy (Sep 9, 2009)

lilcindi said:


> yeh its just i was look on CPR and they have a pair of 50% poss het snows for £295 i think, just wondered if it was a good way to go, obviously not lol


The poor odds are the reason for the low price but, if you like a gamble, you would be very unlucky to get 2 normals. On the other hand, if you don't get a visual the first time that you breed them, then it could take years proving them out one way or another unless you have separate visuals of each sex to breed them to. Look at it this way: if you were lucky enough to get a male het albino and a female het axanthic in the pair then you would never find out from just from breeding the pair together. If you don't have any separate visuals you would need to keep back all the babies and cross back to both parents-it could take forever and they could still be normals to start with. If you were very lucky you could get an albino, an axanthic and a snow in the first clutch-probably a marginally better bet than the lottery but not much...


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## paulh (Sep 19, 2007)

Yardy is right. Expect to have to put in the time to get at least 17 babies out of the pair. Which would take roughly 3 years. According to probability theory, if you get 17 eggs and none is axanthic, the probability is 99% that at least one parent is not heterozygous axanthic. And if you get 17 eggs and none is albino, the probability is 99% that at least one parent is not heterozygous albino. Good luck.


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