# breeding 2 66% hets whats the genetic outcome?



## coral1 (Jun 4, 2009)

hi breeding a pair of 66% het t plus boas what will be the genetic outcome,hets,possible hets.etc visuals.thanks.


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## HadesDragons (Jun 30, 2007)

"66% het" means that there's a 2/3 chance that the individual is actually het for that gene, and a 1/3 chance it's genetically "normal" at that locus.

If both parents are het (you've got a 4/9 chance of this happening, so just under 50%), you'd expect 25% visual and the rest would be "66% hets".

If one parent is het and one is normal you'd get babies that are all "50% hets", but there would be no visual animals. If neither parent is het you also wouldn't get any visual animals, but none of the babies would be hets. Without breeding both parents to other known hets/visuals you wouldn't be able to tell the two possibilities apart though, so you wouldn't be able to sell the babies as possible hets, because you wouldn't know whether or not they were.


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## neep_neep (Oct 18, 2007)

There are three possibilities:

1: Both are hets - the chances of this are ~44%.

25% normal (%=chances per offspring)
50% het
25% visual 

This would mean all 'normal' looking individuals would be 66% poss hets.


2: Only one is a het - the chances of this are ~ 33%.

50% normal
50% het

Visually, there is no way of knowing - so all offspring would be 50% poss hets. BUT you could only advertise them as such if you knew for CERTAIN that one of the parents was definitely a het, which would require breeding each parent to a guaranteed het/visual.


3: Neither is a het - the chances of this are ~22%.

100% normal.

Again, visually no way of knowing if they are hets or normal. Unless these particular hets show markers?

Hope that helps 


(Edit - dangnammit, beaten to it!)


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## alan1 (Nov 11, 2008)

you cant calculate percentages on "poss" hets...
they're either hets, or they're not


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## paulh (Sep 19, 2007)

neep_neep said:


> There are three possibilities:
> 
> 1: Both are hets - the chances of this are ~44%.
> 
> ...


The only points where I disagree with this post are the probabilities of each outcome.

1: Both are hets - the chances of this are 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9 = ~44%. (This was right.)

2: Only one is a het - the chances of this are (2/3 * 1/3) + (1/3 * 2/3) = 4/9 = ~44%.

The probability of male het and female normal is 2/3 * 1/3 = 2/9.
The probability of male normal and female het is 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9
2/9 + 2/9 = 4/9

3: Neither is a het - the chances of this are 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 = ~11%.


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## coral1 (Jun 4, 2009)

hi, in theory you could only call them 66% hets,unless a visual totaly stood out from the litter with all the visual markers then.


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## Ssthisto (Aug 31, 2006)

No, until and unless the adults produce a visual offspring (proving that they are 100% het) you should not call any of the babies *any* percentage of het - you haven't proven that the parents are carrying the gene at all.


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## alan1 (Nov 11, 2008)

Ssthisto said:


> No, until and unless the adults produce a visual offspring (proving that they are 100% het) you should not call any of the babies *any* percentage of het - you haven't proven that the parents are carrying the gene at all.


ALSO... if you have indisputable paperwork to guarantee the adult het
ie: from a well known breeder like midge piasco etc...


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## Ssthisto (Aug 31, 2006)

But a "Guaranteed 66% het" - no matter how good the paperwork is - is still only a possible het. All the paperwork does is confirm that the parents of the animal you've got were 100% het for whatever


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## Mujician (Mar 7, 2007)

paulh said:


> The only points where I disagree with this post are the probabilities of each outcome.
> 
> 1: Both are hets - the chances of this are 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9 = ~44%. (This was right.)
> 
> ...


 
Where is the remaining 1%? 44 + 44 + 11 is 99.


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## bothrops (Jan 7, 2007)

Mujician said:


> Where is the remaining 1%? 44 + 44 + 11 is 99.


It's where the '~' symbol comes in! It means 'approximately'. If you add up the fractions you'll see 4/9 + 4/9 + 1/9 = 9/9 = 1 = 100%


4/9 actually equals 44.444444444444444444444444444444444444444....etc %


Cheers

Andy


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