# Moonglow odds?



## StuG (Nov 4, 2009)

Just wanted to double vcheck the odds on hitting a moonglow from a 
hypo het anery het albino to either a hypo het albino het anery or a normal het albino het anery
Cheers Stu


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## StuG (Nov 4, 2009)

Anyone?


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## chris25 (Mar 24, 2009)

stu, from my calc book i make it 3.1% th x th

also 3.1% th x dh snow

low odds !


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## paulh (Sep 19, 2007)

I copy the 1/32 = 3.1% odds for the th x dh snow. But I get 3/64 for the th x th. Odds are 3/4 to get a salmon or super salmon, 1/4 to get an albino, and 1/4 to get an anerythrisitic. 3/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 = 3/64.


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## StuG (Nov 4, 2009)

Cheers for that guys. Paul please could you do me a full list of all possible outcomes and odds.
Normal dh anery albino X hypo het anery albino
i get
34.375% hypo 66% het Anery het Albino 
6.25% sunglows 66% het Anery
3.125% Moonglows
6.25% Ghosts 66% het Albino
34.375% Normal 66% het anery 66% het Albino
6.25% Albino 66% het Anery
3.125% Snows
6.25% Anery 66% het Albino

Is that right? Im getting confused on the hypo het anery het albino to hypo het anery het albino. Any help would be great!


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## paulh (Sep 19, 2007)

I'll have to get back to you on the dh snow x th moonglow.

A triple het (th) moonglow has three gene pairs of interest:
1. a hypo mutant gene paired with a normal gene = het hypo 
2. an albino mutant gene paired with a normal gene = het albino
3. an anerythristic mutant gene paired with a normal gene = het anerythristic

All gene pairs are either homozygous or heterozygous. 
Homozygous = the two genes in the gene pair are the same.
Heterozygous (slang = het) = the two genes in a gene pair are NOT the same.

In my opinion, the easiest way to do a three gene pair problem is to convert it into three one gene problems:
1. het hypo x het hypo -->
1/4 homozygous hypo = super hypo
2/4 het hypo = hypo
1/4 normal

As the appearance of super hypos and hypos overlap, we can reduce this to
3/4 hypo (33% probability super hypo)
1/4 normal

2. het albino x het albino -->
1/4 homozygous normal
2/4 het albino
1/4 albino

As both homozygous normals and het albinos look normal, this can be reduced to 
3/4 normal (66% probability het albino)
1/4 albino

3. het anerythristic x het anerythristic -->
1/4 homozygous normal
2/4 het anerythristic
1/4 anerythristic

As both homozygous normals and het anerythristics look normal, this can be reduced to 
3/4 normal (66% probability het anerythristic)
1/4 anerythristic

Putting it all together back into a three gene pair product is easy but not obvious. Simply make a list of the outcome of the first gene pair. Then add the whole second gene pair outcome to each entry in the first gene pair list and multiply the fractions. Continue for each additional gene pair.

Outcomes for the first gene pair:
3/4 hypo, 33% probability super hypo
1/4 normal

First and second gene pairs:
3/4 hypo (33% probability super hypo) - 3/4 normal, 66% probability het albino = 9/16 hypo (33% probability super hypo, 66% probability het albino) 
3/4 hypo (33% probability super hypo) - 1/4 albino = 3/16 hypo albino (33% probability super hypo) = 3/16 sunglow (33% probability super sunglow)
1/4 normal - 3/4 normal (66% probability het albino) = normal (66% probability het albino)
1/4 normal - 1/4 albino = 1/16 albino

First, second and third gene pairs:
3/4 hypo (33% probability super hypo) - 3/4 normal (66% probability het albino) - 3/4 normal (66% probability het anerythristic) = 27/64 (42.2%) hypo (33% probability super hypo, 66% probability het albino, 66% probability het anerythristic)
3/4 hypo (33% probability super hypo) - 3/4 normal (66% probability het albino) - 1/4 anerythristic = 9/64 hypo anerythristic (33% probability super hypo, 66% probability het albino) = 9/64 (14.1%) ghost (33% probability super ghost, 66% probability het albino)
3/4 hypo (33% probability super hypo) - 1/4 albino - 3/4 normal (66% probability het anerythristic) = 9/64 hypo albino (33% probability super hypo) = 9/64 (14.1%) sunglow (33% probability super sunglow)
3/4 hypo (33% probability super hypo) - 1/4 albino - 1/4 anerythristic = 3/64 hypo albino anerythristic (33% probability super hypo) = 3/64 (4.7%) moonglow (33% probability super moonglow)
1/4 normal - 3/4 normal (66% probability het albino) - 3/4 normal (66% probability het anerythristic) = 9/64 (14.1%) normal (66% probability het albino, 66% probability het anerythristic)
1/4 normal - 3/4 normal (66% probability het albino) - 1/4 anerythristic = 3/64 (4.7%) anerythristic (66% probability het albino)
1/4 normal - 1/4 albino - 3/4 normal (66% probability het anerythristic) = 3/64 (4.7%) albino (66% probability het anerythristic)
1/4 normal - 1/4 albino - 1/4 anerythristic = 1/64 albino anerythristic = 1/64 (1.6%) snow

Clear as mud?


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## paulh (Sep 19, 2007)

Here is what I get

Normal dh anery albino x hypo het anery albino -->
9/32 (28.1%) hypo 66% het Anery 66% het Albino 
3/32 (9.4%) sunglows 66% het Anery
1/32 (3.125%) Moonglows
3/32 (9.4%) Ghosts 66% het Albino
9/32 (28.1%) Normal 66% het anery 66% het Albino
3/32 (9.4%) Albino 66% het Anery
1/32 ( 3.125%) Snows
3/32 (9.4%) Anery 66% het Albino


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## StuG (Nov 4, 2009)

Thanks Paul, appreciate the reply and your time!


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## motorhead (Dec 5, 2010)

would one get better odds with a male snow and a female ghost het albino ??? i do belive 1/4 of the litter should be moonglows,i might be wrong :blush:


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## paulh (Sep 19, 2007)

motorhead said:


> would one get better odds with a male snow and a female ghost het albino ??? i do belive 1/4 of the litter should be moonglows,i might be wrong :blush:


You are right.


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## dtboas (Jun 15, 2011)

I will defo give you :no1: for that paul ! you have more patience than me :censor: hahaa.

Ive just purchased a female DH sunglow and my mate has the male DH sunglow, , the pair have also produced anery boas in the litter.... but no snow,ghost or moonglow. hmmm yeh i know what your thinking, ive bought them as DH and not TH so if they do prove out Th i will be very happy as we got the pair for £700 and they are 2006 born. lets just cross our fingers for this ! lol.
Let me know what you think


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## naja-naja (Aug 26, 2009)

hypo dh to hypo dh makes a 3/64 chance of moonglow (actually 1/32 moonglow and 1/64 super moonglow)
hypo dh to normal dh makes a 1/32 chance of moonglow.


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